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Trump Gains Ground On Biden In Major Swing State: Poll

Last Updated 1 week by Amnon J. Jobi | Amnon Front Page

Former President Donald Trump has gained significant ground in Pennsylvania in recent months, according to a poll released Tuesday by the Commonwealth Foundation.

The survey taken between June 14-19 of 800 registered voters in Pennsylvania — a vital battleground state in the 2024 election — showed that 47% of respondents would vote for the Republican candidate in the presidential election and 48% would choose the Democratic candidate. While Democrats still lead in the poll, the results show a significant shift in favor of Trump from the Commonwealth Foundation poll taken in March, where Democrats held a 51% to 44% lead.

The new poll, notably taken before last week’s debate, spells more trouble for the Biden campaign as other Democrats in the state maintained high favorability among Pennsylvanians while Joe Biden’s favorability dropped three points. According to the poll, Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA), who is up for re-election this year, maintains a +14 favorability rating and holds a 12-point lead over Republican candidate David McCormick. Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), who was elected in 2022, has a +11 favorability rating. President Biden’s favorability rating among Pennsylvanians is underwater by 12 points.

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Trump is also moving in the right direction among Pennsylvania voters in a Cygnal poll that was taken last week. According to Cygnal, which serves GOP campaigns, likely voters prefer the Republican presidential candidate to the Democratic candidate 47.3% to 44.7%. “Swing voters” also preferred the GOP candidate to the Democrat by nearly four points, while 40% of swing voters remain unsure of who they would vote for in November.

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The latest Commonwealth Foundation poll shows negative results for Biden in Pennsylvania even before respondents watched the first debate of 2024 between Biden and Trump, a debate that was widely viewed as disastrous for the president. A CNN survey of debate watchers showed that 67% believe Trump won while only 33% say that Biden did better. Biden’s debate performance caused panic among Left-leaning political commentators and some Democrats who questioned if Biden should step aside and let another candidate run against Trump.

In another telling sign for Democrats, who have focused much of their 2024 campaign strategy on abortion, 20% of registered voters in Pennsylvania ranked inflation/cost of living as the top issues facing the country heading into the election. Ten percent said immigration/border security is the biggest issue, and the economy 9% said the same of the economy. Only 5% of respondents ranked abortion as the top issue.

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Pennsylvania helped Trump win the presidency in 2016 and was an important piece of Biden’s path to victory four years ago. Trump maintains a three-point lead over Biden in the polls, according to the RealClearPolitics average as of Tuesday morning.

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